I performed an extensive analysis on Pelican Bay
today to help a buyer better explain his price position on his offer. If you've been following my Naples real estate blog
or if you've had your ear to the ground here in Naples
, you've heard two things repeatedly.
- There's no inventory
- We're expecting a very busy buying season
With sales steadily increasing buyers are losing power in negotiations. It's been an interesting pre-season to say the least. As an example there were 1,604 sales from October to December 28th last year in Naples Florida. This year there were 1,923 (up 18%). That has clearly put a new tone in listing agent and seller's voices and you can't hardly blame them...they've been waiting a long time to get the upper hand again and many feel like they have it...but do they?
Having a thorough understanding of a market is one of the most valuable assets a real estate agent can possess and sadly few can analyze a market well enough to have an undeniable understanding. Unfortunately the data can be difficult to figure out and in some cases there isn't enough data to properly assess to get a true value of a property. That's where my Pelican Bay
analysis came in today.
For the sake of confidentiality, I'm not going to discuss the exact location within Pelican Bay
my buyer is targeting but because there was a strong discrepancy regarding current values in the location, I broadened the scope of my analysis to check my accuracy of understanding the Pelican Bay market.
This is when negotiating can get tricky. The listing agent in this case was clearly holding tight to the idea that just because one buyer clearly over spent means that there's a well defined much higher market value in the neighborhood...total bummer. So I held tight to the other Pelican Bay sales that made more sense while finding visions of holding hands merrily to the closing table were quickly fading...eh...been here before. So here's what I found out about our current Pelican Bay real estate market.
Where is Pelican Bay really?
Avg list price $931,585
Avg sell price $853,359
Avg sell price/sq ft $337
Avg list to sell price ratio 94%
# of sales 374
Avg list price $1,040,204
Avg sell price $969,778
Avg sell price/sq ft $379
Avg list to sell price ratio 95%
# of sales 492
Avg list price $1,091,785
Avg sell price $987,945
Avg sell price/sq ft $373
Avg list to sell price ratio 91%
# of sales 305
Avg list price $1,023,973
Avg sell price $939,875
Avg sell price/sq ft $370
Avg list to sell price ratio 92%
# of sales 355
While 2012 stats closely resemble 2004, there are some pretty big discrepancies between the two comparison years. For example sales are off 38% this year compared to 2004. Sellers were recognizing a stronger confidence with the indication they were getting 95% of their list price and their price per square foot was 6% higher than it is right now. That indicates that while 2004 and 2012 were similar years, they weren't exactly the same and shows a consumer confidence problem along with some inconsistency.
For example if you check out 2011 statistics, properties in Pelican Bay sold for a fraction higher price per square foot but when you review statistics between 2003 and 2004 price per square foot values rose 12%. The other concern of course is the number of sales only rose 16% from last year to this year but between 2003 to 2004 sales rose 31%.
So what does all this mean? I can tell you a few good real estate rules the best agents always try to follow:
1. A bird in the hand is always better than a bird in the bush.
With all of the crazy fiscal cliff talk, stock market spills and world economy woes, do you think now is the time to brush off a less than perfect offer?
2. Your first offer is your best offer.
This is a widely accepted and believed practice and very often true at the chagrin of every seller who let the guy go
. Did you know there are 1,860,000 results in Google
for "first offer is the best offer"?
3. You got to know when to hold 'em, know when to fold 'em, know when to walk away and know when to run
...yes...so horribly cheesy but so important. The desire to sell fluctuates drastically from seller to seller and some may have the stamina to hold out for a few more bucks or gladly afford to lose a few dollars later down the road. It's imperative you as a seller properly know yourself and hopefully you agent has the intelligence to ask you the hard questions. Will you be ok if this backfires?
Pelican Bay property owners who sold last year compared to this year combined put an additional $10,000 in their pocket.
Do you want to know what it will be next year? Call me, this time next year.
If you're thinking about selling your Pelican Bay property
, call me. I know the market, I can help you get all of your money. Swiftly, confidently.
If you're thinking about buying a Pelican Bay property
. It's more important today than it has been in years to choose a proven, knowledgeable professional like me who can help you get your deal done without overspending.
Happy New Year!
Shannon Lefevre, PA
Your Naples Smart Girl!